Rachel V Thomas

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From Climate Change To AMR To Obesity: 17 Global Health Threats By 2100, Lancet Warns

<span>Climate change</span>, antimicrobial resistance (<span>AMR</span>) and <span>obesity</span> are among 17 threats that could cause massive losses of healthy life by 2100, according to a new report by The <span>Lancet Commission</span> on 21st Century Global Threats to Health.

Launched at the World Health Summit 2026 in Berlin, the report draws on risk analysis across 204 countries and territories to identify threats that could have catastrophic consequences for global health.

“Humanity still has the agency to act,” said Commission co-chair Professor Christopher JL Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, warning that delays would increase future costs.

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<h2>What Are The <span rel="noindex">17 Global Health Threats</span>?</h2>

The Commission classified a threat as catastrophic if it could account for at least one billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2100, could be modelled using available data and offered scope for policy intervention.

DALYs measure healthy years lost to illness, disability or premature death.

<ol><li>Obesity</li><li>Low educational attainment</li><li>Income inequality</li><li>Malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI)</li><li>Nuclear conflict</li><li>Poor mental health</li><li>Unhealthy ageing</li><li>Smoking</li><li>Conventional conflict</li><li>High blood pressure</li><li>Antimicrobial resistance</li><li>High alcohol use</li><li>Pandemics</li><li>Climate change</li><li>Air pollution</li><li>Collapse of development assistance for health</li><li>Childhood malnutrition</li></ol>

These estimates reflect potential health losses that interventions could avert, not the urgency or priority of each threat. Risks with lower estimated burdens may still require urgent action because of their potential consequences.

“The estimates highlight how much health loss could be avoided in each area,” Murray said, noting that the threats are interconnected and must be addressed together rather than in isolation.

<h2>Obesity Could Cost 23.1 Billion Healthy Life-Years</h2>

Obesity represents the largest estimated burden of potentially avoidable health loss among the 17 threats, with 23.1 billion DALYs projected between 2025 and 2100 under the Commission's assessment.

The obesity risks linked high body mass index, poor diet and physical inactivity.

Other estimates include 16.1 billion DALYs associated with low educational attainment, 13.8 billion with income inequality, 10.4 billion with malicious use of AI and 9.4 billion with nuclear conflict.

<h2>Climate Change Could Cost Billions Of Healthy Life-Years </h2>

Limiting global warming to around 1.8°C, rather than allowing it to reach 4.4°C, could prevent an estimated 1.89 billion healthy life-years from being lost to causes including extreme heat and air pollution.

The estimate excludes some harder-to-measure impacts, such as displacement, drought, economic disruption and mental health problems, meaning the overall burden could be greater. Without substantial emissions cuts, climate-related health losses could accumulate beyond 2100 and worsen other global health threats.

“This <span>Lancet</span> Commission offers a radical conceptual shift in the way we think about future threats to human survival,” said Dr Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of <em>The Lancet</em>, calling for coordinated action across sectors.

The Commission calls for sustained investment, stronger preparedness and regular risk monitoring. It urges governments and other stakeholders to coordinate action across sectors to reduce preventable health losses.

The report brings together 35 commissioners from health, economics, security, governance and technology to assess threats to global health over 2025–2100.

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Climate change, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and obesity are among 17 threats that could cause massive losses of healthy life by 2100, according to a new report by The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health.Launched at the World Health Summit 2026 in Berlin, the report draws on risk analysis across 204 countries and territories to identify threats that could have catastrophic consequences for global health.“Humanity still has the agency to act,” said Commission co-chair Professor Christopher JL Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, warning that delays would increase future costs.Also Read: Attention Deficit May Be The Wrong Way To Understand ADHD, Says US PsychiatristWhat Are The 17 Global Health Threats?The Commission classified a threat as catastrophic if it could account for at least one billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2100, could be modelled using available data and offered scope for policy intervention.DALYs measure healthy years lost to illness, disability or premature death.The 17 threats are:ObesityLow educational attainmentIncome inequalityMalicious use of artificial intelligence (AI)Nuclear conflictPoor mental healthUnhealthy ageingSmokingConventional conflictHigh blood pressureAntimicrobial resistanceHigh alcohol usePandemicsClimate changeAir pollutionCollapse of development assistance for healthChildhood malnutritionThese estimates reflect potential health losses that interventions could avert, not the urgency or priority of each threat. Risks with lower estimated burdens may still require urgent action because of their potential consequences. “The estimates highlight how much health loss could be avoided in each area,” Murray said, noting that the threats are interconnected and must be addressed together rather than in isolation.          Obesity Could Cost 23.1 Billion Healthy Life-YearsObesity represents the largest estimated burden of potentially avoidable health loss among the 17 threats, with 23.1 billion DALYs projected between 2025 and 2100 under the Commission's assessment.The obesity risks linked high body mass index, poor diet and physical inactivity.Other estimates include 16.1 billion DALYs associated with low educational attainment, 13.8 billion with income inequality, 10.4 billion with malicious use of AI and 9.4 billion with nuclear conflict.Climate Change Could Cost Billions Of Healthy Life-Years Limiting global warming to around 1.8°C, rather than allowing it to reach 4.4°C, could prevent an estimated 1.89 billion healthy life-years from being lost to causes including extreme heat and air pollution.The estimate excludes some harder-to-measure impacts, such as displacement, drought, economic disruption and mental health problems, meaning the overall burden could be greater. Without substantial emissions cuts, climate-related health losses could accumulate beyond 2100 and worsen other global health threats.“This Lancet Commission offers a radical conceptual shift in the way we think about future threats to human survival,” said Dr Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, calling for coordinated action across sectors.The Commission's Call To ActionThe Commission calls for sustained investment, stronger preparedness and regular risk monitoring. It urges governments and other stakeholders to coordinate action across sectors to reduce preventable health losses.The report brings together 35 commissioners from health, economics, security, governance and technology to assess threats to global health over 2025–2100.

from climate change to amr to obesity: 17 global health threats by 2100, lancet warns

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