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Rachel V Thomas

Global Temperatures Likely To Stay Near Record Levels For Next Five Years: WMO

<span>Global temperatures</span> are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, according to a new report released by the <span>World Meteorological Organization</span> (WMO).

The Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are likely to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

According to the report, there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.

<h2>Global Temperatures Over The Next 5 Years</h2>

The report said Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to remain significantly above the global average.

There is a 91 per cent chance that, for at least one year between 2026 and 2030, the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Notably, this threshold was temporarily crossed in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 baseline.

The update further stated that there is also a 75 per cent chance that the average warming across the five years from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C.

However, it remains exceptionally unlikely — less than a 1 per cent chance — that any single year in the next five years will exceed 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels.

<strong>Also read: </strong><a href="https://www.healthandme.com/health-wellness/can-extreme-heat-trigger-heart-palpitations-expert-explains-risks-article-154416912" data-type="tilCustomLink">Can Extreme Heat Trigger Heart Palpitations? Expert Explains Risks</a> 

The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific, also known as the Niño 3.4 region, indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly during 2027 and 2028.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report.

The update was produced by the UK Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It combines forecasts contributed by 13 institutes, including the Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Met Office.

The report comes as European countries like France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany are experiencing early heatwaves and record-breaking conditions.

The sweltering heat conditions have affected scores of people, reportedly resulting in the deaths of about seven people in France. The unusually high temperatures early in May are being triggered by a phenomenon called a “heat dome”.

“A classic, highly anomalous and powerful Heat Dome has parked over Western and Central Europe,” said Severe Weather Europe in a statement.

The forecaster also warned that temperatures are soaring by 12-16°C above “long-term climatological norms” with an extraordinary thermodynamic plume sending “a massive core of extreme warmth over Spain, Portugal, Ireland, the UK, France, and Germany”.

<strong>Also read: </strong><a href="https://www.healthandme.com/health-wellness/climate-change-fueling-chikungunya-spread-to-europe-north-america-warns-study-article-154415551" data-type="tilCustomLink">Climate Change Fueling Chikungunya Spread To Europe, North America, Warns Study</a>

As a result, southern and southwestern regions, including Portugal, Spain, and France, will experience daytime temperature highs of 38°C. The majority of France is under a moderate to high temperature warning, while Germany and the UK are witnessing maximum temperatures exceeding 30°C, the Euronews reported.

According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2025 was the third-hottest year on record, both globally and in Europe. The past three years – 2024, 2023, and 2025, in that order – were the hottest ever recorded globally.

Last year, temperatures exceeded 40°C in dozens of nations, pushing countries into drought, igniting wildfires, and killing thousands.

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Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, according to a new report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).The Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are likely to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.According to the report, there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.Global Temperatures Over The Next 5 YearsThe report said Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to remain significantly above the global average.There is a 91 per cent chance that, for at least one year between 2026 and 2030, the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Notably, this threshold was temporarily crossed in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 baseline.The update further stated that there is also a 75 per cent chance that the average warming across the five years from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C. However, it remains exceptionally unlikely — less than a 1 per cent chance — that any single year in the next five years will exceed 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels.Also read: Can Extreme Heat Trigger Heart Palpitations? Expert Explains Risks The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific, also known as the Niño 3.4 region, indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly during 2027 and 2028.“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report. The update was produced by the UK Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It combines forecasts contributed by 13 institutes, including the Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Met Office.Heat Dome In EuropeThe report comes as European countries like France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany are experiencing early heatwaves and record-breaking conditions.The sweltering heat conditions have affected scores of people, reportedly resulting in the deaths of about seven people in France. The unusually high temperatures early in May are being triggered by a phenomenon called a “heat dome”.“A classic, highly anomalous and powerful Heat Dome has parked over Western and Central Europe,” said Severe Weather Europe in a statement.The forecaster also warned that temperatures are soaring by 12-16°C above “long-term climatological norms” with an extraordinary thermodynamic plume sending “a massive core of extreme warmth over Spain, Portugal, Ireland, the UK, France, and Germany”.Also read: Climate Change Fueling Chikungunya Spread To Europe, North America, Warns StudyAs a result, southern and southwestern regions, including Portugal, Spain, and France, will experience daytime temperature highs of 38°C. The majority of France is under a moderate to high temperature warning, while Germany and the UK are witnessing maximum temperatures exceeding 30°C, the Euronews reported.According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2025 was the third-hottest year on record, both globally and in Europe. The past three years – 2024, 2023, and 2025, in that order – were the hottest ever recorded globally.Last year, temperatures exceeded 40°C in dozens of nations, pushing countries into drought, igniting wildfires, and killing thousands.

global temperatures likely to stay near record levels for next five years: wmo

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