Once a rare condition, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) now affects one in three Indians, scientists say.

NAFLD, now called as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), is when excess fat builds up in the liver, unrelated to heavy alcohol use, due to obesity, Type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and cholesterol.

It ranges from simple fat accumulation to inflammation and damage, which can progress to fibrosis, cirrhosis or liver cancer, The disease often has no symptoms and is managed with lifestyle changes such as diet and weight loss.

A JAMA study has now found that about 40 percent of the global population is now suffering from NAFLD, with abdominal obesity identified as its single biggest risk factor. Between 2010 and 2021, India recorded a 13.2 percent increase in age-standardized prevalence, ranking just behind China at 16.9 percent and Sudan at 13.3 percent.

What Did The Study Find?

Researchers found that nearly 70 percent of people with Type 2 diabetes and about 80 percent of those with obesity are affected by NAFLD. They also discovered that NAFLD prevalence is higher in men than in women, with rates of 15,731 per 100,000 population in men compared with 14,310 in women.

Additionally, the disease peaks earlier in men, between 45 and 49 years of age, while women show the highest prevalence between 50 and 54 years.

Why Is NAFLD on the rise?

Poor diets (high carbs/sugar), sedentary habits and rising obesity are some of the key reasons why an uptick in NAFLD cases has been seen pan-India. Increased intake of refined carbs, sugary drinks, processed foods and unhealthy fats can increase the risk of obesity, diabetes, hypertension and high cholesterol which can pave the way for this liver disease.

Experts also note that working long hours at desks without any proper physical activity can lead to weight gain and fat accumulation in the liver.

According to the Union health ministry, the prevalence of the condition could be in the range of 9-53 percent. Multiple other health studies also suggest nearly 40 percent of urban Indians may have some form of fatty liver disease

Hepatologist Dr Cyriac Abby Philips, popularly known as LiverDoc on social media, noted on X that many patients do not realize that timely lifestyle changes can completely reverse the condition. “All it takes is being in charge of your body and health. No shortcuts—go slow and steady,” he wrote.

If left untreated, NAFLD can progress to Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH), where liver inflammation begins. Over time, this inflammation can lead to scarring of the liver, known as fibrosis. Advanced fibrosis results in cirrhosis, which severely affects liver function.

NAFLD can also increase the risk of chronic liver disease, liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma. Many patients diagnosed with liver cancer have a history of untreated fatty liver.

An international group of scientists has created an artificial intelligence tool that can estimate a woman’s likelihood of developing breast cancer within the next four years.

The AI tool, known as the BRAIx risk score, analyzes mammogram images to generate an individualized risk assessment and flag women who may face a higher chance of developing the disease.

It may not only show the current risk but also predict the future risk, enabling early detection and treatments for a better outcome.

According to the findings published in The Lancet Digital Health journal, nearly one in 10 women ranked in the top 2 percent of risk by the AI tool were diagnosed with breast cancer within four years. This was despite previously receiving a clear screening result.

“These risk scores enable future development of personalized screening pathways to transform population breast cancer screening and save lives,” said corresponding author Helen M. L. Frazer of the University of Melbourne.

Frazer noted that identifying women who appear cancer-free but carry very high risk -- comparable to those with inherited BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations -- will unravel both hereditary and non-hereditary causes of breast cancer.

From one-size-fits-all screening to personalization

Breast cancer screening programs have significantly lowered mortality rates -- by roughly 40-50 percent among women aged 50 to 74. However, most screening systems still apply the same approach to all women, regardless of individual risk.

Traditional screening tools use genetics, breast density, and questionnaires to estimate breast cancer risk. On the other hand, new AI-based screening tools, such as BRAIx personalizes screening by gathering information already present in breast scan images to better identify who is at higher risk.

“Our results show that conventional mammographic density is a far weaker predictor of breast cancer risk than the BRAIx risk score, even for interval cancers,” the researchers said in the paper. Interval cancers are aggressive tumors diagnosed after a negative mammogram.

The BRAIx Tool

The BRAIx risk score was developed using mammograms from nearly 400,000 women. To prove its efficacy, the AI tool was tested on data from almost 96,000 women from Australia and then confirmed in an independent Swedish population of over 4,500 women.

The findings showed that:

• The BRAIx risk score estimated breast cancer risk more accurately than the traditional risk factors, such as breast density, country of birth, and even family history.

• For the top 2 percent of women with the highest BRAIx risk score, the probability of a cancer diagnosis within 4 years was 9.7 percent -- a risk level exceeding that typically seen in women with inherited BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

The BRAIx risk score can:

• Make breast screening more personalised,
• Improve early cancer detection,
• Reduce false alarms,
• Save lives without increasing costs

Global Breast Cancer Burden

Breast cancer continues to be the most common cancer among women worldwide.

A recent study published in The Lancet Oncology journal predicted that the number of new cases of the deadly disease will reach more than 3.5 million globally in 2050 -- rising by a third from 2.3 million in 2023.

Annual deaths from the disease will also rise by 44 percent -- from around 764,000 to 1.4 million.

However, not smoking, getting sufficient physical activity, lowering red meat consumption, and having a healthy weight can help prevent over a quarter of healthy years lost to illness and premature death from breast cancer.

Childhood obesity in India is expected to surge to a whopping 56 million by 2040 -- nearly a 20 percent rise from 2025, according to an alarming new global report released today by the World Obesity Federation.

The World Obesity Atlas 2026, released on World Obesity Day -- observed globally on March 4 -- revealed that of the 56 million, about 20 million children in the country will be obese, while the remaining will be overweight.

Globally, the number of children aged 5-19 years living with obesity or overweight is predicted to increase to 507 million by 2040 -- from 419 million in 2025.

Overweight Children: India Second-Highest Globally In 2025

Among children aged 5-9 years, 14.921 million were overweight or obese in 2025

In children aged 10-19 years, more than 26.402 million were overweight or obese.

India was among the top 10 countries -- second after China -- that accounted for over 200 million school-age children, aged 5-19 years, with high Body Mass Index (BMI).

Between 2010 and 2025, India had a 4.8 percent increase in the prevalence of high BMI and obesity among children aged 5-19 years.

"The increase in childhood obesity worldwide shows we have failed to take seriously a disease that affects one in five children," said Johanna Ralston, chief executive at the World Obesity Federation.

"Governments urgently need to step up prevention and management efforts for children living with overweight and obesity, and ensure that they receive the care they need," Ralston added.

High BMI To Surge Chronic Disease By 2040 In India

By 2040, the report also projected a substantial increase in the risk of diseases among children aged 5-19 years due to a high BMI in India. This includes:

• Hypertension (high blood pressure) expected to spike by 4.21 million from 2.99 million
• hyperglycemia (high blood sugar) to 1.91 million from 1.39 million
• high triglycerides (excess fats in the blood) to 6.07 million from 4.39 million
• metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) to 11.88 million from 8.39 million

The key preventable risk factors in the country include:

• 74 percent of adolescents aged 11-17 fail to meet recommended physical activity levels
• Only 35.5 percent of school-age children (primary and secondary) receive school meals
• 32.6 percent of infants aged 1-5 months experience sub-optimal breastfeeding
• 13.4 percent of women aged 15-49 are exposed to high BMI
• 4.2 percent of women aged 15-49 live with Type 2 diabetes
• Children aged 6-10 consume an average of 0-50 ml of sugary drinks per day

Obesity: A Global Health Concern

Globally, the number of school-age children living with obesity now exceeds those living underweight.

Currently, more than one in five (20.7 per cent) 5-19 year-olds worldwide are living with obesity and overweight -- an increase from 14.6 per cent in 2010.

In 2025, about 177 million children aged 5-19 years were living with obesity. The number is expected to jump to 228 million in 2040.

By 2040, the Atlas also predicts that 227 million children aged 5-19 years will be living with obesity compared to 142 million living with underweight.

Notably, most of the world’s school-age children aged 5-19 living with obesity reside in the middle-income countries. By 2040, this is estimated to be as many as 169 million children.

Call To Action

The World Obesity Federation called for strong action to reverse current trends. These include imposing:

• taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages,
• restrictions on marketing to children (including digital platforms), implementation of global physical activity recommendations for children, protection of breastfeeding,
• healthier school food standards,
• integration of prevention and care into primary health systems.

Tamil Nadu health authorities have ramped up surveillance efforts and implemented preventive and control measures to curb rising chickenpox cases in the state.

The Directorate of Public Health (DPH) and Preventive Medicine has instructed all health officers to intensify active and passive surveillance in all government and private health facilities, schools, colleges and hostels.

They were also directed to ensure that all suspected and confirmed cases are entered into the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) line list with complete demographic and clinical details.

All medical officers across the state have further been asked to be alert to differentiate chickenpox from other rash illnesses such as measles, rubella, and hand, foot and mouth disease.

This comes weeks after doctors across Pune also warned against the exponential rise in chickenpox cases this winter.

Dr Shirish Kankariya, head of paediatrics at Apollo Hospital Swargate, said he had seen around 15 chickenpox patients in Jan alone, and the current season has brought a visible uptick in cases.

"Chickenpox cases have risen. We are also seeing infections in older children and adult family members, who never had the disease earlier," he told Times of India.

Dr Prateek Kataria, consultant pediatrician and neonatologist at Sahyadri Hospital also noted that out-patient departments (OPDs) have recently seen a large increase confirmed chickenpox cases this year.

He also told the publication: "We are seeing many children with chickenpox in the OPD even among those who have taken both doses of the vaccine. This is expected because the vaccine does not guarantee 100% protection, but vaccinated children usually develop milder illness and do not need hospitalization."

What Is Chickenpox And How Does It Spread?

Chickenpox, caused by the varicella-zoster virus, is extremely contagious and spreads through respiratory droplets or direct contact with someone who is infected. In children, it often starts as a mild rash accompanied by fever, but it can spread quickly in crowded areas.

The virus can also be transmitted through coughing or sneezing, and it is most infectious a day or two before the rash appears and in the early days of the rash. In individuals with weak immunity, the dormant virus may reactivate later in life, causing shingles (herpes zoster).

How To Detect Chickenpox Symptoms Early?

Spotting chickenpox early means looking for general warning signs like fever, fatigue, headache, and loss of appetite, which usually appear one to two days before the rash.

The rash itself starts as tiny red spots that later form fluid-filled blisters and eventually scab over. Paying attention to these early symptoms, especially after known exposure, can help identify the infection sooner.

How To Spot A Chickenpox Rash

The first rash usually shows up as small red bumps on the face, chest, or back. These bumps quickly turn into blisters filled with fluid, which are contagious. Over a few days, the blisters break and crust over, forming scabs. It’s common to see spots, blisters, and scabs all at the same time, according to the CDC.

Stages Of Chickenpox

The Mayo Clinic explains that chickenpox progresses in three main stages:

• Incubation Stage (10–21 days): After exposure, the virus remains inactive. Infected individuals typically show no symptoms during this period.
• Prodromal Stage (1–2 days): Early signs include fever, tiredness, headache, loss of appetite, and body aches. This is also when the virus can start spreading to others.
• Rash Stage (5–10 days): Red, itchy spots appear first on the face and chest, spreading across the body. These spots develop into fluid-filled blisters that scab over within a few days. Mild fever, itching, and discomfort are common during this stage.

According to the Cleveland Clinic, complications are uncommon but can include pneumonia, brain inflammation (encephalitis), and bacterial skin infections. Vulnerable groups, such as infants, pregnant women, older adults, and people with weakened immunity are at higher risk of severe illness.