Health and Me

Ishita Roy

Lancet Study Estimates 15 Lakh Annual Air Pollution Deaths in India; Centre Calls Data 'Inconclusive'

zDelhi woke up again to a yet another thick smoggy morning, with visibility dropping low. On Monday morning, the city's average air quality index or <span>AQI</span> stood at 'severe' category for the third consecutive day. As of 6am, the data from the Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi stood at 457. As per the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), at least four stations, including Ashok Vihar, Jahangirpuri, Rohini, Wazirpur, recorded AQI of 500 at 7am. 

As of 10am on Monday morning, Delhi stood at 480, Noida at 551, Greater Noida at 568, Gurugram at 454, Faridabad at 546, and Ghaziabad at 569, all under 'severe' category. 

As a result, the Commission for Air Quality Management has issued directives to Delhi and NCR state governments on Sunday, December 14. The directives suggest for an immediate halt on all outdoor physical sports activity. This move has come after concerns were raised around schools that are still continuing outdoor activities despite poor air quality. 

Amid this, a <span>Lancet study</span> also revealed that 15 lakh annual deaths in India are due to long-term exposure to air pollution. The particulate matter or PM2.5 found in air pollution is linked to many health issues. Since the particles are so small in size, it could easily penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream, and cause serious health impacts. However, despite the global studies highlighting the country's ever-growing pollution problem, the Centre stated that "there is no conclusive data available in the country to establish direct correlation if death/disease exclusively due to air pollution."

<h2>What Does The Lancet Study Say About Air Pollution And Health?</h2>

The comprehensive Lancet study conducted an analysis from 2009 to 2019, and measured the consequence of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter or PM2.5. 

The study estimated: “1·5 million deaths occurred annually due to long-term exposure to PM2·5 in India every year in excess of the 5 μg/m3 that is recommended by the WHO ambient air quality guidelines.” 

The study noted that every 10μg/m³ increase in annual PM2·5 concentration was associated with an 8.6 pc higher risk of all-cause mortality. 

Using India’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards, researchers estimate that about 3.8 million deaths between 2009 and 2019 were linked to PM2.5 exposure. When WHO guidelines were applied, the number rose sharply to 16.6 million, nearly one-fourth of all deaths in the country. The analysis relied on advanced causal methods and high-resolution models that mapped district-level PM2.5 exposure across India, while accounting for factors such as socioeconomic status, age distribution, and indoor air pollution.

These findings are backed by a 2017 time-series study from Delhi that examined the short-term impact of air pollution on deaths from natural causes. The researchers pointed out that studies worldwide have consistently shown a clear link between common urban air pollutants and harmful health effects. Despite Delhi’s well-documented air quality crisis, they noted that limited local evidence on how specific pollutants affect health had long slowed meaningful policy action.

<h2>Different Pollutants Impact Different Age Groups</h2>

To bridge this gap, the study analyzed data from 2008 to 2010, focusing on key pollutants: particulate matter under 10 micrometres (PM10), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3). Using a semi-parametric regression model that adjusted for non-linear factors such as time trends, temperature, and humidity, the researchers found strong links between short-term exposure to both particulate and gaseous pollutants and daily all-cause mortality.

They estimated that every 10 μg/m³ rise in PM10 levels was associated with a 0.14 per cent increase in all-cause deaths. Among gaseous pollutants, NO2 had the strongest impact, with a 1 per cent rise in mortality for every 10 μg/m³ increase in daily concentration. Ozone and carbon monoxide also showed significant effects, even after accounting for NO2 levels. The analysis that was done based on age also revealed that particulate matter affected older adults aged 65 and above. Whereas, gaseous pollutants had a greater impact on people aged 5 to 44. 

Overall, the researchers concluded that the evidence clearly reinforces the link between poor ambient air quality and increased all-cause mortality.

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zDelhi woke up again to a yet another thick smoggy morning, with visibility dropping low. On Monday morning, the city's average air quality index or AQI stood at 'severe' category for the third consecutive day. As of 6am, the data from the Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi stood at 457. As per the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), at least four stations, including Ashok Vihar, Jahangirpuri, Rohini, Wazirpur, recorded AQI of 500 at 7am. As of 10am on Monday morning, Delhi stood at 480, Noida at 551, Greater Noida at 568, Gurugram at 454, Faridabad at 546, and Ghaziabad at 569, all under 'severe' category. As a result, the Commission for Air Quality Management has issued directives to Delhi and NCR state governments on Sunday, December 14. The directives suggest for an immediate halt on all outdoor physical sports activity. This move has come after concerns were raised around schools that are still continuing outdoor activities despite poor air quality. Amid this, a Lancet study also revealed that 15 lakh annual deaths in India are due to long-term exposure to air pollution. The particulate matter or PM2.5 found in air pollution is linked to many health issues. Since the particles are so small in size, it could easily penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream, and cause serious health impacts. However, despite the global studies highlighting the country's ever-growing pollution problem, the Centre stated that "there is no conclusive data available in the country to establish direct correlation if death/disease exclusively due to air pollution."What Does The Lancet Study Say About Air Pollution And Health?The comprehensive Lancet study conducted an analysis from 2009 to 2019, and measured the consequence of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter or PM2.5. The study estimated: “1·5 million deaths occurred annually due to long-term exposure to PM2·5 in India every year in excess of the 5 μg/m3 that is recommended by the WHO ambient air quality guidelines.” The study noted that every 10μg/m³ increase in annual PM2·5 concentration was associated with an 8.6 pc higher risk of all-cause mortality. Using India’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards, researchers estimate that about 3.8 million deaths between 2009 and 2019 were linked to PM2.5 exposure. When WHO guidelines were applied, the number rose sharply to 16.6 million, nearly one-fourth of all deaths in the country. The analysis relied on advanced causal methods and high-resolution models that mapped district-level PM2.5 exposure across India, while accounting for factors such as socioeconomic status, age distribution, and indoor air pollution.These findings are backed by a 2017 time-series study from Delhi that examined the short-term impact of air pollution on deaths from natural causes. The researchers pointed out that studies worldwide have consistently shown a clear link between common urban air pollutants and harmful health effects. Despite Delhi’s well-documented air quality crisis, they noted that limited local evidence on how specific pollutants affect health had long slowed meaningful policy action.Different Pollutants Impact Different Age GroupsTo bridge this gap, the study analyzed data from 2008 to 2010, focusing on key pollutants: particulate matter under 10 micrometres (PM10), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3). Using a semi-parametric regression model that adjusted for non-linear factors such as time trends, temperature, and humidity, the researchers found strong links between short-term exposure to both particulate and gaseous pollutants and daily all-cause mortality.They estimated that every 10 μg/m³ rise in PM10 levels was associated with a 0.14 per cent increase in all-cause deaths. Among gaseous pollutants, NO2 had the strongest impact, with a 1 per cent rise in mortality for every 10 μg/m³ increase in daily concentration. Ozone and carbon monoxide also showed significant effects, even after accounting for NO2 levels. The analysis that was done based on age also revealed that particulate matter affected older adults aged 65 and above. Whereas, gaseous pollutants had a greater impact on people aged 5 to 44. Overall, the researchers concluded that the evidence clearly reinforces the link between poor ambient air quality and increased all-cause mortality.