Autism diagnoses for children in the United States continue to rise, with the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicating that one out of every 31 eight-year-olds have been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The findings, published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, are a low-key but significant improvement over previous years and come at a time when the disease is facing heightened political scrutiny, including from the administration of President Donald Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.While the CDC attributes this steady rise to improved screening, increased awareness, and broader access to diagnostic care, Kennedy has introduced fresh unsubstantiated claims of a connection between autism and exposures to the environment and vaccines—despite decades of contradiction from empirical evidence suggesting no such association. His comments have stoked controversy surrounding the causes of autism even as experts emphasize that the evidence must be reflected in more comprehensive policies and support systems, not fear or misinformation.Is Autism Really on the Rise Or Early Detection?In its recent report both pointing to gains in early detection and persistent issues with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed that autism rates in the United States have reached an all-time high. Through 2022, approximately 1 in 31 U.S. 8-year-olds had an autism diagnosis—an increase from 1 in 36 two years before. Though some have called this a "public health epidemic," health care providers and scientists credit the trend to a more longer-term shift in diagnostic patterns, increased awareness, and increasing access to services, especially within historically disenfranchised populations.The CDC's latest biennial surveillance report, published in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, includes a comprehensive picture of autism prevalence across the country. Using data collected from several Texas, Georgia, and California communities, the findings show significant regional variation. For example, in one San Diego metropolitan community, 1 in 19 children had been diagnosed with autism—the highest rate in the study.Of note, these rises are not always a reflection of a rise in the prevalence of children with autism, but rather an increase in the ability to identify it, particularly at earlier stages in life. According to the CDC, enhanced screening tools, parent and pediatrician education campaigns, and community-based interventions have all contributed to this diagnostic shift.The report comes on the heels of autism having received new political attention. President Donald Trump and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. placed autism at the center of their healthcare agenda. Kennedy, who has long drawn criticism for linking autism with vaccines—a myth that has been often debunked by the scientific world—called the condition an "epidemic running rampant."Contrary to Kennedy's assertions, the CDC and senior health leaders maintain that increases in autism diagnosis are primarily due to positive trends in detection and awareness, rather than an explosion of cases with environmental or medical causes.Kennedy's call for new investigations into vaccines and autism has raised alarm among advocacy groups and scientists. The decades-long, peer-reviewed push against the myth that vaccines cause autism has demolished the trope. According to the CDC, vaccines remain safe and essential to public health.This rhetoric does more harm than good," stated Christopher Banks, president and CEO of the Autism Society of America. "Prevalence data should drive equity and access—not fear, misinformation, or political rhetoric.".Perhaps most notably, the CDC report highlights the growing trend of autism diagnoses in children of color. Traditionally disproportionately diagnosed in white, affluent communities, ASD increasingly is being diagnosed in Black, Hispanic, and Asian children. The trend, first reported in the 2020 CDC report, continues, a sign of growing outreach and access to care in historically underserved communities.In fact, autism now happens less frequently in upscale neighborhoods than in socially disadvantaged communities—a reversal of the decades-ago trend. The CDC emphasized that the trend reversal is likely a result of concerted efforts to reduce gaps in early screening and diagnostic services, and not because there is any increased biological risk in some communities.Autism remains significantly more common in boys than girls. In 2022, autism was diagnosed in boys at a rate 3.4 times higher than girls. While the disparity has lessened in recent years, scientists caution that the disparity is not wholly due to improved diagnostic practices in girls. The nuance and lower disruptive impact of ASD presentation in women—frequently more subtle and less disruptive—can still lead to underdiagnosis or misdiagnosis.Local variation in autism prevalence also tends to correlate with the existence of early intervention services. California, for example, has an excellent program training pediatricians to screen for early signs of autism and providing state-funded regional centers for kids with developmental disorders. These models that are based within communities provide roadmaps for the enhancement of autism identification and treatment systems across the country.Likewise, Puerto Rico's recent investment in public autism awareness campaigns had a profound influence on diagnostic rates. Children born after the island-wide early detection initiative was initiated had one of the highest rates of diagnosis among their age group, a reflection of the effectiveness of preventive public health initiatives.While the slight uptick in autism rates may sound alarming, health professionals urge the public to interpret the numbers with caution. “This is not an epidemic,” said one CDC epidemiologist familiar with the report. “What we’re seeing is the fruit of years of advocacy, education, and systemic change.”Experts and autism advocacy leaders reinforce that message. "This entire generation of children is not damaged," said the Autism Society's Banks. "They are being seen, heard and served more than ever before."
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