Rachel V Thomas

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US To Face Nearly 28,000-Surgeon Shortfall By 2038: What Could This Mean For Patients?

Amid rising demand for surgical care, the US is expected to face a significant shortage of surgeons by 2038, according to the first unified assessment of the country’s surgical workforce.

The study, presented at the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026, projects that the US will face a shortfall of 27,940 surgeons nationally.

This comes as demand for surgeons is projected to increase by 12.8%, while the overall surgeon workforce is expected to decline by 4.2% between 2023 and 2038. The workforce would meet just 84.3% of projected national need.

“Studies usually look at one specialty at a time, so a shortage looks like that specialty’s problem,” said lead author Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine.

“When you put all 10 specialties together, you can see supply is projected to fall while demand keeps rising, and that the gaps are worse in rural areas. The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography, not incremental.”

<h2>Which Specialties Will Face The Biggest Shortages?</h2>

Researchers used the <span>Health Workforce</span> Simulation Model (HWSM), a federal model from the US Department of Health and Human Services, to analyze surgeon supply and demand across 10 surgical specialties from 2023 to 2038.

The analysis found that overall surgeon supply is projected to decline 4.2% from 2023 to 2038, while demand is expected to rise 12.8%.

The specialties projected to face the most critical shortages include:

<ul><li>Vascular surgery — 65.8% of need met</li><li>Ophthalmology — 71.8%</li><li>Thoracic surgery — 73.1%</li><li>Plastic surgery — 74.1%</li><li>Urology — 84.4%</li><li>Otolaryngology — 87.5%</li><li>Orthopedics — 87.9%</li><li>Neurosurgery — 88.7%</li></ul>

Only general surgery, at 91.3% and colorectal surgery, at 98.3%, are projected to remain close to meeting demand.

At the same time, the gaps between surgeon supply and demand are also projected to be greater in rural areas.

<h2>What Could This Mean For <span rel="noindex">Patients</span>?</h2>

For patients, <span>surgical shortages</span> could mean longer waits for procedures.

Patients may also need to travel farther for medical care, particularly in rural areas where some people may have to drive hours to access treatment.

The researchers said the findings point to the need for targeted workforce policies and geography-focused strategies rather than incremental changes.

Duraes pointed to a proposed bill, H.R. 3890, the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, as one potential response.

The bill would increase the number of residency positions, which the ACS says has not changed since 1997. It also proposes addressing federal student loan limits and expanding loan-forgiveness programmes to encourage physicians to practise in rural areas.

“The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography” if they are expected to work, Duraes said.

The US shortage projection comes amid broader concerns about health workforce shortages worldwide.

Nearly one in four doctors globally is older than 55 and could retire within the next decade, according to the World Health Organization’s National Health Workforce Accounts: Health Workforce Levels and Trends 2026.

The report, the first in an annual series providing a global picture of health workforce levels and trends, said ageing among health workers is intensifying shortages in some countries, while population ageing is simultaneously increasing demand for healthcare services.

The global health worker shortage has fallen from 20 million in 2013 to 15 million in 2020. However, newer analysis has revised the projected shortage for 2030 upward to 11.1 million, compared with an earlier estimate of about 10 million.

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Amid rising demand for surgical care, the US is expected to face a significant shortage of surgeons by 2038, according to the first unified assessment of the country’s surgical workforce.The study, presented at the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Clinical Congress 2026, projects that the US will face a shortfall of 27,940 surgeons nationally.This comes as demand for surgeons is projected to increase by 12.8%, while the overall surgeon workforce is expected to decline by 4.2% between 2023 and 2038. The workforce would meet just 84.3% of projected national need.“Studies usually look at one specialty at a time, so a shortage looks like that specialty’s problem,” said lead author Fernando Ribeiro Duraes, a medical student at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine.“When you put all 10 specialties together, you can see supply is projected to fall while demand keeps rising, and that the gaps are worse in rural areas. The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography, not incremental.”Which Specialties Will Face The Biggest Shortages?Researchers used the Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM), a federal model from the US Department of Health and Human Services, to analyze surgeon supply and demand across 10 surgical specialties from 2023 to 2038.The analysis found that overall surgeon supply is projected to decline 4.2% from 2023 to 2038, while demand is expected to rise 12.8%.The specialties projected to face the most critical shortages include:Vascular surgery — 65.8% of need metOphthalmology — 71.8%Thoracic surgery — 73.1%Plastic surgery — 74.1%Urology — 84.4%Otolaryngology — 87.5%Orthopedics — 87.9%Neurosurgery — 88.7%Only general surgery, at 91.3% and colorectal surgery, at 98.3%, are projected to remain close to meeting demand.At the same time, the gaps between surgeon supply and demand are also projected to be greater in rural areas.What Could This Mean For Patients?For patients, surgical shortages could mean longer waits for procedures.Patients may also need to travel farther for medical care, particularly in rural areas where some people may have to drive hours to access treatment.The researchers said the findings point to the need for targeted workforce policies and geography-focused strategies rather than incremental changes.Duraes pointed to a proposed bill, H.R. 3890, the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, as one potential response.The bill would increase the number of residency positions, which the ACS says has not changed since 1997. It also proposes addressing federal student loan limits and expanding loan-forgiveness programmes to encourage physicians to practise in rural areas.“The fixes have to be targeted by specialty and by geography” if they are expected to work, Duraes said.Global Health Workforce CrisisThe US shortage projection comes amid broader concerns about health workforce shortages worldwide.Nearly one in four doctors globally is older than 55 and could retire within the next decade, according to the World Health Organization’s National Health Workforce Accounts: Health Workforce Levels and Trends 2026.The report, the first in an annual series providing a global picture of health workforce levels and trends, said ageing among health workers is intensifying shortages in some countries, while population ageing is simultaneously increasing demand for healthcare services.The global health worker shortage has fallen from 20 million in 2013 to 15 million in 2020. However, newer analysis has revised the projected shortage for 2030 upward to 11.1 million, compared with an earlier estimate of about 10 million.

us to face nearly 28,000-surgeon shortfall by 2038: what could this mean for patients?

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US To Face Nearly 28,000-Surgeon Shortfall By 2038: What Could This Mean For Patients?

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