Rachel V Thomas

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Can Five Everyday Factors Help Predict Dementia Risk? Study Explains

A simple five-factor risk score may help identify people at high risk of <span><a href="https://www.healthandme.com/health/dementia">dementia</a></span>, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where around 60% of the world's dementia cases now occur.

Developed and validated by researchers at Northumbria University, the risk score uses five everyday factors to identify older adults at higher risk of <a href="https://www.healthandme.com/health/dementia" data-type="tilCustomLink">dementia</a>. It aims to address a gap in dementia research, as existing prediction tools have largely been developed using data from high-income countries and may not work as well in lower-income settings.

The research team developed the model using data from more than 11,000 older adults across seven countries and three continents.

“We know the burden of dementia is shifting towards lower-income parts of the world, yet the prediction models clinicians and researchers rely on were designed with wealthier populations in mind. This model is a step towards changing that. It is simple, it is built for the settings where it is needed most, and it gives researchers a practical way to find the people who should be the focus of future studies and trials,” said Dr Eduwin Pakpahan, from Northumbria University's Applied Statistics and Data Science Research Group. The study is published in the <em>American Journal of Epidemiology</em>.

<h2>What Are The Five Factors Used To Predict <span rel="noindex"><a href="https://www.healthandme.com/health/dementia">Dementia</a> Risk</span>?</h2>

<strong>Also read</strong>: <a href="https://www.healthandme.com/health-news/whos-new-dementia-guidelines-prioritize-healthy-habits-warn-against-supplements-article-155105783" data-type="tilCustomLink">WHO's New Dementia Guidelines Prioritize Healthy Habits, Warn Against Supplements</a>

The model can be applied using information gathered through a straightforward conversation with an older adult and, where relevant, a family member or carer. It does not require blood tests, brain scans or specialist equipment.

The five factors included in the risk score are:

<ul><li><strong>Age:</strong> The strongest single predictor. Dementia risk rises meaningfully from age 70 and more steeply from 80 onwards.</li><li><strong>Social engagement:</strong> This includes whether a person is married or living with others, how often they meet friends or family, and whether they participate in community or religious groups.</li><li><strong>Physical activity:</strong> The model considers how active a person is in daily life, across both work and leisure. Everyday movement, such as farming, walking to the market or doing household tasks, also counts.</li><li><strong>High blood pressure:</strong> Uncontrolled hypertension can damage the blood vessels supplying the brain over time. It is common, often undiagnosed in lower-income settings, and inexpensive to manage.</li><li><strong>Difficulty managing money:</strong> A family member or carer is asked whether the person has experienced a noticeable change in their ability to handle finances. This can be one of the early everyday signs of cognitive change.</li></ul>

<h2>How Does The <span rel="noindex">Dementia Risk Score</span> Work?</h2>

Each factor contributes points towards a total score ranging from 0 to 9. A person scoring 0 has around a 1% chance of developing dementia within three years, while someone scoring 9 has a nearly 19% chance.

The researchers built and tested the model across seven sites in China, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. It achieved a performance score of 0.75, above the 0.70 threshold generally regarded as clinically useful.

However, the researchers emphasise that the tool is primarily intended for research rather than routine screening of the general population. It could give researchers and clinical trial teams a practical, low-cost way to identify and recruit people at higher risk of dementia.

The team has also called for the model to be validated in regions not covered by the study, particularly South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

<strong>Read More: </strong><a href="https://www.healthandme.com/health-wellness/dementia-is-more-than-forgotten-birthdays-lost-keys-doctors-explain-early-signs-before-memory-loss-article-155608674" data-type="tilCustomLink">Dementia Is More Than Forgotten Birthdays, Lost Keys: Doctors Explain Early Signs Before Memory Loss</a>

<h2>Why Is A Dementia Risk Prediction Tool Important?</h2>

Dementia affects more than 57 million people worldwide, with around 60% of cases occurring in LMICs across Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia and Africa.

Identifying people at higher risk could help researchers in these regions plan studies and clinical trials that better reflect their populations. A simple tool based on everyday information may also make risk assessment more accessible in settings where specialised diagnostic resources are limited.

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A simple five-factor risk score may help identify people at high risk of dementia, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where around 60% of the world's dementia cases now occur.Developed and validated by researchers at Northumbria University, the risk score uses five everyday factors to identify older adults at higher risk of dementia. It aims to address a gap in dementia research, as existing prediction tools have largely been developed using data from high-income countries and may not work as well in lower-income settings.The research team developed the model using data from more than 11,000 older adults across seven countries and three continents.“We know the burden of dementia is shifting towards lower-income parts of the world, yet the prediction models clinicians and researchers rely on were designed with wealthier populations in mind. This model is a step towards changing that. It is simple, it is built for the settings where it is needed most, and it gives researchers a practical way to find the people who should be the focus of future studies and trials,” said Dr Eduwin Pakpahan, from Northumbria University's Applied Statistics and Data Science Research Group. The study is published in the American Journal of Epidemiology.What Are The Five Factors Used To Predict Dementia Risk?Also read: WHO's New Dementia Guidelines Prioritize Healthy Habits, Warn Against SupplementsThe model can be applied using information gathered through a straightforward conversation with an older adult and, where relevant, a family member or carer. It does not require blood tests, brain scans or specialist equipment.The five factors included in the risk score are:Age: The strongest single predictor. Dementia risk rises meaningfully from age 70 and more steeply from 80 onwards.Social engagement: This includes whether a person is married or living with others, how often they meet friends or family, and whether they participate in community or religious groups.Physical activity: The model considers how active a person is in daily life, across both work and leisure. Everyday movement, such as farming, walking to the market or doing household tasks, also counts.High blood pressure: Uncontrolled hypertension can damage the blood vessels supplying the brain over time. It is common, often undiagnosed in lower-income settings, and inexpensive to manage.Difficulty managing money: A family member or carer is asked whether the person has experienced a noticeable change in their ability to handle finances. This can be one of the early everyday signs of cognitive change.How Does The Dementia Risk Score Work?Each factor contributes points towards a total score ranging from 0 to 9. A person scoring 0 has around a 1% chance of developing dementia within three years, while someone scoring 9 has a nearly 19% chance.The researchers built and tested the model across seven sites in China, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. It achieved a performance score of 0.75, above the 0.70 threshold generally regarded as clinically useful.However, the researchers emphasise that the tool is primarily intended for research rather than routine screening of the general population. It could give researchers and clinical trial teams a practical, low-cost way to identify and recruit people at higher risk of dementia.The team has also called for the model to be validated in regions not covered by the study, particularly South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.Read More: Dementia Is More Than Forgotten Birthdays, Lost Keys: Doctors Explain Early Signs Before Memory LossWhy Is A Dementia Risk Prediction Tool Important?Dementia affects more than 57 million people worldwide, with around 60% of cases occurring in LMICs across Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia and Africa.Identifying people at higher risk could help researchers in these regions plan studies and clinical trials that better reflect their populations. A simple tool based on everyday information may also make risk assessment more accessible in settings where specialised diagnostic resources are limited.

can five everyday factors help predict dementia risk? study explains

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