Health and Me

Ishita Roy

Could Bird Flu Become The Next Pandemic For Humans?

<span>Bird flu</span> viruses have been present for long, and what was earlier understood as a virus just limited to avian, could now affect humans too. Bird flu viruses could have a potential risk for humans and may become next pandemic. This comes from two different studies, one done by the universities of Cambridge and Glasgow that show how avian flu strains are multiplying even when the body temperatures could hinder viruses. Whereas, another important study led by Indian scientists, by Philip Cherian and Gautam Menon of Ashoka University, published in BMC Public Health predict if <span>H5N1</span> or the bird flu virus, could start spreading among humans. How quickly must we act to stop it?

Using BharatSim, an open-source simulation platform originally developed during Covid-19, the researchers recreated what an outbreak might look like in real life. “The threat of an H5N1 pandemic in humans is a genuine one,” Prof Menon said, “but we can hope to forestall it through better surveillance and a more nimble public-health response.”

Their model begins where experts believe a real outbreak would: with a single human infection, most likely a poultry worker or someone exposed to infected birds at a farm or market. The danger, the researchers argue, lies not in that first case, but in whether sustained human-to-human transmission takes hold.

The Cambridge and Glasgow study also provides that the viruses generally replicates most effectively in the upper respiratory tract, where temperatures are around 33 °C. They replicate less efficiently deeper in the lungs, where temperatures rise to about 37 °C. However, avian flu thrives in hotter environments, which can read up to 40 to 42 °C.

<h2>Why Does Timing Matter More Than Anything Else?</h2>

The study by Ashoka University has the most sobering findings in how fast control can slip away. According to the simulations, once cases rise beyond roughly two to ten people, the virus is likely to move beyond immediate contacts and into the wider community.

If households of close contacts are quarantined when just two cases are detected, the outbreak can almost certainly be contained. By the time ten cases are identified, however, the model suggests the infection has probably already spread far enough that early interventions no longer make a meaningful difference.

To ground their work in reality, the researchers focused on a village in Tamil Nadu’s Namakkal district, one of India’s largest poultry hubs. With more than 1,600 farms, around 70 million chickens and tens of millions of eggs produced daily, the region reflects the kind of dense human-animal interaction where spillovers are most likely.

In the simulation, the virus spreads outward from a single workplace into homes, schools and markets, tracking primary and secondary contacts. Once “tertiary” infections, contacts of contacts, appear, control becomes dramatically harder without severe measures such as lockdowns.

<h2>What Works And What Does Not Work</h2>

Culling birds work, but only if it happens before humans are infected. Once the spillover is done, isolating patients and quarantining is the only option that can stop the virus, that too if done very early. Targeted vaccination could help raise the threshold at which the virus can sustain itself. Quarantine imposed too early keeps families together longer, increasing household transmission. Imposed too late, it barely slows the outbreak at all.

<h2>Why Is It Important To Understand How Avian Flu Works?</h2>

Avian flu, bird flu or the H5N1 is not new. It first appeared in humans in China in the late 1990s and has since become entrenched across South and South-East Asia. Most of the time, it remains a disease of birds. But every so often, it spills over.

Between 2003 and August 2025, the World Health Organization recorded 990 human infections across 25 countries. Nearly half of those infected died, a fatality rate of around 48%. The numbers are small, but the severity is striking.

In recent years, the virus has shown an unsettling ability to cross species barriers. In the United States, H5N1 has affected more than 180 million birds, spread to over 1,000 dairy herds across 18 states, and infected at least 70 people, most of them farmworkers. In India, the virus killed three tigers and a leopard at a wildlife rescue centre in Nagpur earlier this year, a reminder that mammals are increasingly getting caught in its path.

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Bird flu viruses have been present for long, and what was earlier understood as a virus just limited to avian, could now affect humans too. Bird flu viruses could have a potential risk for humans and may become next pandemic. This comes from two different studies, one done by the universities of Cambridge and Glasgow that show how avian flu strains are multiplying even when the body temperatures could hinder viruses. Whereas, another important study led by Indian scientists, by Philip Cherian and Gautam Menon of Ashoka University, published in BMC Public Health predict if H5N1 or the bird flu virus, could start spreading among humans. How quickly must we act to stop it?How Was The Study Conducted?Using BharatSim, an open-source simulation platform originally developed during Covid-19, the researchers recreated what an outbreak might look like in real life. “The threat of an H5N1 pandemic in humans is a genuine one,” Prof Menon said, “but we can hope to forestall it through better surveillance and a more nimble public-health response.”Their model begins where experts believe a real outbreak would: with a single human infection, most likely a poultry worker or someone exposed to infected birds at a farm or market. The danger, the researchers argue, lies not in that first case, but in whether sustained human-to-human transmission takes hold.The Cambridge and Glasgow study also provides that the viruses generally replicates most effectively in the upper respiratory tract, where temperatures are around 33 °C. They replicate less efficiently deeper in the lungs, where temperatures rise to about 37 °C. However, avian flu thrives in hotter environments, which can read up to 40 to 42 °C.Why Does Timing Matter More Than Anything Else?The study by Ashoka University has the most sobering findings in how fast control can slip away. According to the simulations, once cases rise beyond roughly two to ten people, the virus is likely to move beyond immediate contacts and into the wider community.If households of close contacts are quarantined when just two cases are detected, the outbreak can almost certainly be contained. By the time ten cases are identified, however, the model suggests the infection has probably already spread far enough that early interventions no longer make a meaningful difference.To ground their work in reality, the researchers focused on a village in Tamil Nadu’s Namakkal district, one of India’s largest poultry hubs. With more than 1,600 farms, around 70 million chickens and tens of millions of eggs produced daily, the region reflects the kind of dense human-animal interaction where spillovers are most likely.In the simulation, the virus spreads outward from a single workplace into homes, schools and markets, tracking primary and secondary contacts. Once “tertiary” infections, contacts of contacts, appear, control becomes dramatically harder without severe measures such as lockdowns.What Works And What Does Not WorkCulling birds work, but only if it happens before humans are infected. Once the spillover is done, isolating patients and quarantining is the only option that can stop the virus, that too if done very early. Targeted vaccination could help raise the threshold at which the virus can sustain itself. Quarantine imposed too early keeps families together longer, increasing household transmission. Imposed too late, it barely slows the outbreak at all.Why Is It Important To Understand How Avian Flu Works?Avian flu, bird flu or the H5N1 is not new. It first appeared in humans in China in the late 1990s and has since become entrenched across South and South-East Asia. Most of the time, it remains a disease of birds. But every so often, it spills over.Between 2003 and August 2025, the World Health Organization recorded 990 human infections across 25 countries. Nearly half of those infected died, a fatality rate of around 48%. The numbers are small, but the severity is striking.In recent years, the virus has shown an unsettling ability to cross species barriers. In the United States, H5N1 has affected more than 180 million birds, spread to over 1,000 dairy herds across 18 states, and infected at least 70 people, most of them farmworkers. In India, the virus killed three tigers and a leopard at a wildlife rescue centre in Nagpur earlier this year, a reminder that mammals are increasingly getting caught in its path.