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Rachel V Thomas

Physical Inactivity Due To Climate Change To Lead To 700,000 Additional Deaths By 2050: The Lancet

Physical inactivity due to climate change to lead to 700,000 additional deaths by 2050: The Lancet

Physical activity is a known factor for better physical and mental well-being. However, imagine severe heat forcing you to remain indoors and not being able to just walk around your neighborhood. 

The new study published in the journal The Lancet Global Health predicts that by 2050, the rising temperatures are likely to stop people from being active.

It showed that lack of physical activity, especially for people unable to access gyms, will lead to an estimated 700,000 additional premature deaths.

It is also projected to cause $2.59 billion in annual productivity losses.

“Rising temperatures are projected to increase the prevalence of physical inactivity, translating into additional premature deaths and productivity losses, especially in tropical regions,” said a team of Latin American researchers, led by Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina.

The latest report comes amid climate scientists from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warning of a warmer climate -- between 2.7 and 3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100.

In addition, physical inactivity is already a major global health problem, with about one in three adults failing to meet World Health Organization guidelines for weekly exercise.

The study models how rising temperatures may affect physical activity globally up to the year 2050 based on an analysis of data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022.

It suggests that by 2050, an average temperature above 27.8°C per month would increase physical inactivity by 

<ul><li>1.5 percentage points globally </li><li>1.85 percentage points in low- and middle-income countries </li><li>No clear impact in high-income countries</li></ul>

“This translates to a predicted 0.47–0.70 million additional premature deaths annually and $2.40–3.68 billion in productivity losses,” the researchers said. 

The biggest increase in inactivity will be in hotter regions such as 

<ul><li>Central America, </li><li>the Caribbean, </li><li>Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, </li><li>Equatorial Southeast Asia</li></ul>

Heat can discourage the most common exercise regimen – walks, lead author Christian Garcia-Witulski, Professor at the Pontifical Catholic University, was quoted as saying to The Washington Post.

“The real-world picture is usually not that people suddenly stop moving altogether. It is that heat that gradually erodes the safe, comfortable, and practical opportunities people have to stay active in everyday life,” Garcia-Witulski said.

<h2>Physical Inactivity - A Silent Global Crisis</h2>

Regular physical activity promotes both mental and physical health in people of all ages. The WHO advises at least 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise weekly, alongside regular muscle-strengthening activities.

As per the Global Status Report on Physical Activity 2022, more than 80 percent of adolescents and 27 percent of adults do not meet the WHO’s recommended levels of physical activity.

The UN health body also aims to achieve the global target of a 15 percent relative reduction in the prevalence of physical inactivity by 2030.

The WHO recommends that countries increase levels of physical activitywithin their populations by developing and implementing dedicated comprehensive national policies to ensure safer roads for cycling and walking, accessible opportunities for active recreation where people live, work, and play, and promoting physical activity. 

The Lancet researchers called for

<ul><li>action to protect the public from rising heat, </li><li>design cooler cities, </li><li>provide affordable air-conditioned places to exercise, </li><li>clear advice on how to stay safe in extreme heat, </li><li>reduce greenhouse gas emissions.</li></ul>

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Physical activity is a known factor for better physical and mental well-being. However, imagine severe heat forcing you to remain indoors and not being able to just walk around your neighborhood. The new study published in the journal The Lancet Global Health predicts that by 2050, the rising temperatures are likely to stop people from being active. It showed that lack of physical activity, especially for people unable to access gyms, will lead to an estimated 700,000 additional premature deaths. It is also projected to cause $2.59 billion in annual productivity losses.“Rising temperatures are projected to increase the prevalence of physical inactivity, translating into additional premature deaths and productivity losses, especially in tropical regions,” said a team of Latin American researchers, led by Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina. The latest report comes amid climate scientists from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warning of a warmer climate -- between 2.7 and 3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. In addition, physical inactivity is already a major global health problem, with about one in three adults failing to meet World Health Organization guidelines for weekly exercise. Deaths Due To Climate Change The study models how rising temperatures may affect physical activity globally up to the year 2050 based on an analysis of data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022. It suggests that by 2050, an average temperature above 27.8°C per month would increase physical inactivity by 1.5 percentage points globally 1.85 percentage points in low- and middle-income countries No clear impact in high-income countries“This translates to a predicted 0.47–0.70 million additional premature deaths annually and $2.40–3.68 billion in productivity losses,” the researchers said.  The biggest increase in inactivity will be in hotter regions such as Central America, the Caribbean, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Southeast Asia Heat can discourage the most common exercise regimen – walks, lead author Christian Garcia-Witulski, Professor at the Pontifical Catholic University, was quoted as saying to The Washington Post. “The real-world picture is usually not that people suddenly stop moving altogether. It is that heat that gradually erodes the safe, comfortable, and practical opportunities people have to stay active in everyday life,” Garcia-Witulski said.Physical Inactivity - A Silent Global CrisisRegular physical activity promotes both mental and physical health in people of all ages. The WHO advises at least 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise weekly, alongside regular muscle-strengthening activities. As per the Global Status Report on Physical Activity 2022, more than 80 percent of adolescents and 27 percent of adults do not meet the WHO’s recommended levels of physical activity. The UN health body also aims to achieve the global target of a 15 percent relative reduction in the prevalence of physical inactivity by 2030. The WHO recommends that countries increase levels of physical activitywithin their populations by developing and implementing dedicated comprehensive national policies to ensure safer roads for cycling and walking, accessible opportunities for active recreation where people live, work, and play, and promoting physical activity.  The Lancet researchers called for action to protect the public from rising heat, design cooler cities, provide affordable air-conditioned places to exercise, clear advice on how to stay safe in extreme heat, reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

physical inactivity due to climate change to lead to 700,000 additional deaths by 2050: the lancet

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