The U.S. fertility rate dropped to its lowest recorded point in 2024, with fewer than 1.6 children per woman, according to newly released data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The statistic marks a continuation of a nearly two-decade-long trend in declining birth rates, one that has shifted the United States closer to the demographic profile of Western European countries.For context, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered the “replacement level,” the point at which a generation can, theoretically, replace itself. The U.S. hovered near that threshold until the late 2000s. But since then, it has slipped steadily, and 2024’s rate of 1.599 puts it well below what’s needed for generational stability without immigration.Behind the numbers are real-world pressures shaping family planning decisions. Today’s young adults are marrying later, starting families later—or opting out entirely. Financial uncertainty plays a significant role.“People are concerned about whether they can afford to have children—not just the cost of childbirth, but long-term needs like childcare, housing, and health insurance,” said Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina. “Worry is not a good moment to have kids.”The cost of raising a child in the U.S. has climbed steadily, outpacing wage growth in many parts of the country. And while millennials and Gen Z have higher educational attainment than previous generations, they also carry more debt, face steeper housing markets, and often work in jobs with fewer benefits.The Long Arc of DeclineTo understand the drop in fertility, it's important to zoom out. In the early 1960s, during the postwar baby boom, the U.S. total fertility rate peaked around 3.5. But by the mid-1970s, it had plummeted to 1.7, largely due to the availability of birth control, changing gender roles, and cultural shifts around family size.There was a brief rebound in the early 2000s, with the rate rising to 2.1 in 2007. But the 2008 financial crisis triggered another sharp downturn—and the recovery in births never quite came.According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, the fertility rate in 2023 was 1.621, before dipping further to 1.599 in 2024.Why Is Trump Administration’s Pushing to Reverse the Trend?Concerned about declining birth rates, the Trump administration has recently taken steps to try to stimulate family formation. These include:An executive order aimed at expanding and reducing the cost of in vitro fertilization (IVF)Public endorsements of “baby bonus” incentives, which would provide financial rewards to couples who have childrenHowever, experts remain skeptical of these measures. "These are largely symbolic moves,” said Guzzo. “They don’t address the real obstacles facing families, like paid parental leave, affordable childcare, and housing affordability. Until those are on the table, you’re not going to see a meaningful change.”While the overall fertility rate declined, total births actually rose in 2024. According to the CDC’s finalized data, there were about 33,000 more births than the previous year, bringing the annual total to just over 3.6 million babies.This may seem contradictory at first glance. But demographers say it makes sense once you factor in changes in population estimates.The U.S. Census Bureau updated its estimates for the number of women of childbearing age. The increase in this demographic—largely driven by immigration offset small increases in births in certain age groups, leading to a recalculated (and lower) birth rate.Initial projections earlier in 2024 suggested that women in their late 20s and 30s were having more children. But the updated report, based on a more complete dataset, found:Declines in birth rates for women in their 20s and early 30sNo significant change for women in their late 30sSo while there may have been slightly more babies born, the pool of women able to give birth also grew—especially due to immigrant populations—pulling the overall fertility rate downward.Should We Be Alarmed?Not necessarily. Unlike countries like Japan or Italy, where shrinking populations are already straining healthcare systems and economies, the U.S. population is still growing, thanks largely to immigration. And while birth rates are falling, experts emphasize that this is often a delay, not an outright decision never to have children.“What we’re seeing is people having kids later, not necessarily choosing not to have them at all,” said Root. “The U.S. still has a natural increase—more births than deaths.”That said, the economic and policy environments matter. In countries like Sweden and France, which offer strong parental leave policies and subsidized childcare, birth rates have remained more stable despite similar social trends.As debates about immigration and population policy heat up, the fertility rate is increasingly seen as more than just a demographic metric—it’s a political one.A sustained drop below replacement level, without compensatory immigration, could eventually lead to workforce shortages, strains on entitlement programs, and broader economic shifts. But solutions, experts argue, will require more than one-time bonuses or headline-grabbing executive orders.If the U.S. wants to encourage family formation, it will need to invest meaningfully in family support systems: paid leave, healthcare, housing, education, and affordable childcare. Otherwise, the gap between ideal family size and actual fertility will continue to widen.The drop to a 1.599 fertility rate in 2024 is a milestone but not an emergency. It's a reflection of changing cultural, economic, and personal dynamics in American life. Addressing it will require real policy innovation, not just political talking points.For now, Americans are still having children, just on their own timeline, and often with more questions than confidence.